In this post I will show how I would vote, if I was given the chance.
Given the definitions of value in my earlier post, I consider this one…
“relative worth, merit, or importance: the value of a college education; the value of a queen in chess.”
as my best way to evaluate talent and to assign value.
What this means is that I am not going to penalize a player for switching leagues midseason or for being on a poor team. Mark Teixeira, for example, showed more poise than weakness by adjusting from NL pitching to AL pitching and thriving.
Drop the “League”-necessary aspect of it. Anyone who switches leagues is thereby null and void in that case (Manny Ramirez? AL MVP hands down).
So, when I make my votes, I am going to take the last league in which they played and count the players entire year into the consideration. So, for example, C. C. Sabathia started in Cleveland, finished in Milwaukee, but I will treat his stats as if he spent the whole season in Milwaukee.
It’s not perfect, but it is light years better than the system our voters currently go by. Imagine a year where a Pujols 70 HR .500 OBP year gets shafted because of a deadline trade.
Here is the paste of my original 2008 award picks, posted originally on my fantasy baseball forum. In hindsight a few small changes could’ve been made but I stand by everything I wrote:
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2008 Awards
Ah, the MVP. Should only a player on a playoff-contending team be able to win it? Should it go to the best overall player in the league? Should it go to the player that gave the most production-per-dollar? Any of these suggestions could work with an award named Most Valuable Player.
And also… what happens if a player switches leagues in the middle of a season if the MVP is a league-based award?
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2008 Awards
The slow free agency continues with a couple trades, an international signing, and a retirement.
- The Phillies traded away 23-year old OF Greg Golson for 25-year old Rangers OF John Mayberry Jr. I have heard many arguments suggesting that this is a bad move for the Phillies, to trade away a guy who just had a .282/.333/.434 season for someone who is two years older and only a level above posting a .263/.316/.474. Well, here’s what’s behind the numbers - Golson may be two years younger, but he projects as a 15-20 HR guy, who has never taken more than 34 walks in a season and has struck out in 30% of his career Plate Appearances. He also has been in the minors one year longer than Mayberry and has a career .265/.309/.406 line. Mayberry on the other hand, is a year removed from posting 30 HRs. While he may post similar average and on-base percentages to Golson, he has a clear advantage in power - and he also strikes out less. His career line is .255/.330/.472.
- The Red Sox traded Coco Crisp for KC’s Ramon Ramirez. Coco Crisp had a disappointing tenure in Boston, after coming over from Cleveland in their 7-player deal in January 2006. Crisp had posted back to back strong seasons in Cleveland, followed by 3 sub-par injury-filled seasons in Boston. This trade may make DeJesus tradable, despite the fact he has had a better career offensively and is only one month older. Boston receives reliever Ramon Ramirez, who posted a 2.64 ERA in 71.7 innings of relief this year. He struggled in 2007 after a decent debut for Colorado in 2006. Not a bad move for Boston, who pick up a potentially solid reliever for an expendable and unhappy center fielder.
- The Chicago White Sox made a splash in the international free agent market, signing 19-year old Cuban infielder Dayan Viciedo to an $11 million dollar Major League deal.
- Mike Mussina officially retired, and the “Hall of Fame” discussions noxiously continue. I’m not sure how many articles I will have to read to find one that doesn’t discuss his win total as being the most important factor to him being or not being in the HoF. Let’s not make mention of his 11 200+ Innings seasons, 57 complete games, 23 shutouts, 2813 strikeouts, 3.68 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, being on the Cy Young ballot 9 times, and five all-star games. Personally, I’m on the fence on this one. No matter how I look at it, not winning a Cy Young and not winning 300 games will ultimately kill his HoF bid, as these are two key factors looked at by the statistically challenged.
Free Agency
The free agent signing train seem to be chugging along slower than usually, despite lower gas prices. The trend continued today, with only one signing of note as of 5 PM EST, and that was the re-signing of Ryan Dempster by the Chicago Cubs. According to the Chicago Sun Times, Dempster will receive a 4-Year, 52 Million dollar deal. Dempster had a career year (when do free agents ever do that!? *cough*), posting a 2.96 ERA and finishing 6th in Cy Young voting. The Cubs needed Dempster, and if he has continued success then it’s a great signing. I expected 4/48, so it’s a bit more than that. It is easily just as bad of a signing as it is a good one if you consider Dempster’s career. He’s a major leaguer, there’s no doubt about that. But he spent the better part of 2005-2007 as a sub-par closer, and over 7 seasons a starter, it was only his second sub-4.00 ERA season.
Other headlines:
- The Yankees are preparing an offer for A.J. Burnett in the 5/80 range according to the New York Post. It’s unfortunate that someone with his attitude doesn’t go the way of the Shea Hillenbrand. I hear the media friendly Oakland Raiders are looking for an upgrade at Quarterback.
- Peter Gammons believes that Milton Bradley is the priority of the Blue Jays this off-season. There is no questioning Milton Bradley’s skill - but with Lind and Snider, it makes more sense to go after Jason Giambi or Rafael Furcal. Milton Bradley doesn’t bring the necessary power to the team.
- Alex Rodriguez is named the - oh, sorry, I was wrong. Turns out Dustin Pedroia was selected as AL MVP by mistake due to ballot confusion from Florida sports writers.
Free Agency
The first free agent signing belongs to the San Francisco Giants, who according to ESPN signed a two-year, eight million dollar deal. Being one of the top five reliever free agents (and Keith Law’s 2nd pick), to get him for so cheap and so early would be a steal for many, if not solely due to his potential as a reliever. Clearly Affeldt wanted to go to San Francisco to sign for below what he could’ve receive had he waited for top tier relievers such as Wood and Rodriguez to sign before him.
Affeldt posted a 3.33 ERA last year, with a 25:80 BB:K rate in 78.3 IP.
Free Agency
The Free Agent Tracker is no longer an html spreadsheet and is a readily available and easily updatable chart. Just click on the Free Agent Tracker link at the top.
Uncategorized
In this basic comparison chart, career and seasonal numbers are compared between Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia in their big signing years. For Santana, we used his 2007 numbers, and Sabathia used this year’s. Make your own inferences.
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Free Agency
C.C. Sabathia finished the year posting a combined 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and a 59:251 BB:K rate in 253 IP. He posted 10 complete games including 5 shutouts. The only reason he didn’t win his second straight Cy Young is due to spending half a season in each league. So is it surprising at all that the Yankees offered 6/140? It is a near identical contract to what Johan Santana received from the Mets in the off-season. But should Sabathia make the same as Santana?
The MLBPA seems to think so. Via RotoWorld, the New York Daily News discusses pressure he may be receiving from the union. Those close to Sabathia believe he wants to stay in Milwaukee but wouldn’t mind a move closer to home (he is from California). The union’s potential pressure would cause Sabathia to take the Yankees’ contract offer despite a personal preference not to. The more money Sabathia makes, the more money the rest of the starting pitchers will make despite the country’s economic situation.
While Sabathia making an annual 23.3 Million is good for the MLBPA and the greedy players and agents therein, is it good for baseball? Should the Union have any impact on the way Sabathia thinks? After all, this is the same union that clearly knows what is good for the sport - they found it necessary to claim “cigarettes are worse than steroids” four years ago, and don’t forget their major league screw-up of the Mitchell Report.
Ultimately, deservedly or not, Sabathia will do one of two things - listen to the union and take $140 Million to help raise the salaries of all players; or he will usher in an ideology that has been all but officially removed from baseball - the concept of the big star hometown discount.
Free Agency
Arizona Diamondbacks Top 11 Prospects List
1) Jarrod Parker (RHP)
First on the list is Jarrod Parker, the 2007 1st-rounder. The once booming Arizona farm system has had its’ talent either graduated or traded away in packaged deals (Dan Haren). The soon to be 20-year old RHP Parker had his first minor league season and began with South Bend (Low-A). He spent the entire season there and recorded a 3.44 ERA with a 1.24 WHIP and 117 Ks in 117.2 IP, almost an exact 1 K/IP. Things are looking up for Parker and he should be able to test AA by mid-season 2009.
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Minor Leagues
Over at Baseball Prospectus, Kevin Goldstein has begun releasing his Top 11 Prospects by Organization lists. So far he has released the lists for Arizona, Atlanta, Chicago (Cubs), and Cincinnati. In this 30-part series, we will go over the list of prospects and give our take on the selections, as well as provide links to the articles. You must be a subscriber of Baseball Prospectus to get in-depth information on the prospects (well worth it), but the list of 11 is completely free.
Minor Leagues
