The Final Poll

Barring any sort of last minute desire from the media, the poll delivered today by Ipsos-Reid is most likely the last poll of this campaign season. It’s been a long stretch – and now we’re only one week from the finish line.

The most important change in the poll released today was the switch between Higgins and McIver. In the ROI poll released last week, McIver had 37% and Higgins had 33%. Now, Higgins has the 37% and McIver has 34%. And who knows how the Eau Claire land deal will affect the voting numbers – the Ipsos survey finished thursday, the day before the story broke.

Below is a graph illustrating the support of the candidates who are still polling (including Connelly due to his early Sept. support) between September 8th and October 11th.

As shown above, McIver’s support has continued to wane from a high of 43% on Sept 19th down to 34% on Oct 11th for a net loss of -9%. Higgins has regained her July numbers after losing support in August, going from 27% on Sep 8th to 37% on Oct 11th, a net gain of 10%. Nenshi’s become a formidable third place opponent, but it may be too little too late for the campaign, only polling 21%, for an overall net gain of 13%. Among the remaining contenders, Hawkesworth’s campaign has dropped from 7% to 3%. Burrows has polled all over the place, but never higher than 4%, down to 2% in the latest poll. Stewart has been in the same boat, never higher than 3%, and also down to 2%. Connelly was as high as 3% on Sept 19th, but has failed to record above 0% since.

Other notes from the Ipsos Poll:

– Barb Higgins leads in ‘High school or less education’, 48% to McIver’s 29% and Nenshi’s 18%.
– Barb Higgins leads in ‘Lower income households’, 51% to McIver’s 29% and Nenshi’s 17%.
– Barb Higgins holds ‘NE’ Quadrant lead, 47% to McIver’s 26% and Nenshi’s 20%.
– Ric McIver holds ‘SE’ Quadrant lead, 48% to Higgins’ 27% and Nenshi’s 23%.
– Barb Higgins holds ‘SW’ Quadrant lead, 43% to McIver’s 33% and Nenshi’s 19%. NW Quadrant appears to not be included?
– Among the “Absolutely Certain To Vote” category, Higgins loses one point (36%), but gains one on McIver who loses two (32%), and Nenshi picks up four points (25%).
– 33% considered their vote as only ‘leaning’ at this time. McIver had the lowest percentage of leaning, at 30%, while Higgins had 36% and Nenshi had 38%.
– 58% say they are “Absolutely Certain To Vote”. In the 18-34 range, only 40% said they were absolutely certain, with 68% for the 35+ crowd.

(Cross posted at CalgaryPolitics)

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