Analyzing The Aldermanic Polls

Today, VoteCalgary released their All-Wards Aldermanic Poll done by O’Connell Enterprises. In each ward, 280 people were surveyed, which allows for a ±5.8% margin of error, 19 times out of 20. Here is the voter breakdown for those surveyed:

Age 18-34: 11%
Age 35-49: 25%
Age 50-64: 33%
Age 65+: 30%
Refused: 2%

Now, it’s clearly a skewed poll when you consider only 36% of the respondents were younger than a half-century, but clearly there wasn’t an age quota guideline for this poll. This was indicated by the fact that age was the LAST question instead of a screening question. Regardless, they did a solid job of matching their gender quota 50/50 split.

For the purpose of analyzing this poll, we will take “total support” as the first number and include the firm support, e.g. Candidate X – 20% (15%).

Ward 1
Dale Hodges – 37% (24%)
Chris Harper – 3% (1%)
Ric Lockhart – 2% (1%)
Bill Scott – 2% (1%)
Judi Vendenbrink – (1%)
Undecided – 43%

It looks like Ald. Hodges is well on his way to re-election, as the amount of voters for the also-rans don’t even equal one fifth of Hodges’ current support level. Harper has done a good job of getting his name out there with social media, but unfortunately it won’t be enough.

Ward 2
Gord Lowe – 28% (14%)
“Joe” Biagio Magliocca – 5% (3%)
Terry Avramenko – 5% (2%)
Daniel Del Re – 1% (1%)
Undecided – 49%

Ald. Lowe also appears to be on his way to an easy victory for re-election, which should come as no surprise when Ald. Lowe is facing the same three contenders as 2007, all of whom are on pace to either match or be under their totals from 2007.

Ward 3

Jim Stevenson – 28% (18%)
Helene Larocque – 10% (5%)
Pervaiz Iqbal – 2% (1%)
Gary Tremblay – 2% (1%)
Undecided – 44%

Lots of confusion surrounded Ward 3, with both former Ald. Larocque and incumbent Ald. Stevenson having “re-elect” on their lawn signs. It was an interesting tactic for Larocque, who was likely hoping to pick up the majority of 2007 Chahal voters but has been unsuccessful in doing so. Ward 3 looks to be headed to re-electing their incumbent, as well.

Ward 4
Brad Northcott – 6% (2%)
Leslie Bedard – 4% (3%)
Sean Chu – 4% (1%)
Jon Wong – 4% (2%)
Tommy Low – 4% (2%)
Gael MacLeod – 2% (2%)
Jane Morgan – 2% (2%)
Carol Poon – 2% (1%)
Curtis Kruschel – 1% (1%)
Jeff Haussecker – 1% (0%)
Dwight Boehm – 0% (0%)

Undecided – 55%

Without long-time incumbent Bob Hawkesworth in the way, Ward 4 has become a free-for-all. No candidate has more than 6% total support, and no more than 3% with a firm intention (Bedard). This really will come down to those 55% undecided, but this one surely is a race to the finish that anyone could win.

Ward 5
Ray Jones – 46% (30%)
Beena Ashar – 2% (1%)
Jay Bal – 2% (1%)
Robert Guizzo – 2% (0%)
Undecided – 34%

Ald. Jones will cruise to victory in Ward 5, with only 1/3 of the voters in the ward undecided. The also-rans didn’t put up much of a fight in this one.

Ward 6

Richard Pootmans – 8% (3%)
Randy Royal – 5% (2%)
Brent Mielke – 4% (3%)
John Yannitsos – 4% (2%)
Ken Rogers – 2% (1%)
Coral Turner – 2% (1%)
Robert Willis – 1% (0%)
Rad Dimic – 1% (1%)
Tom Malyszko – 1% (0%)
Henry Sims – 1% (0%)
Undecided – 60%

Just like Ward 4, Ward 6 was expected to be quite the battle with both Connelly and Burrows running for mayor. While Richard Pootmans has the highest support at 8%, both he and Mielke are tied at firm support with 3%. This currently is a 4-man race at the top, but with 60% undecided, those votes could go any which way in this crowded field.

Ward 7
Druh Farrell – 25% (18%)
Kevin Taylor – 15% (10%)
Jim Pilling – 4% (2%)
Elizabeth Ann Cook – 2% (0%)
Michael Krisko – 2% (0%)
Undecided – 40%

Ald. Farrell has seen her fair share of enemies in this election, with many unhappy residents mounting an “Anybody-But-Druh” campaign. Unfortunately, the split vote has still allowed Farrell to have a lead in the ward, but mathematically, Kevin Taylor still has a chance. If the Anybody-But-Druh campaigners have their way and march behind Taylor, this one could be a lot closer than originally anticipated.

Ward 8
John Mar – 39% (25%)
Zak Pashak – 12% (7%)
David Lapp – 1% (1%)
Antoni Grochowski – 1% (0%)
Undecided – 35%

Zak Pashak has mounted a wonderful campaign against Ald. Mar, and due to the fact only 11% of those polled were 18-34 (Pashak’s biggest demo so far), his numbers would certainly be lower. However, it is highly unlikely at this point Pashak will unseat Mar, but I do hope we see more of him in the future.

Ward 9
Gian-Carlo Carra – 9% (5%)
Mike Pal – 8% (5%)
Jeremy Pat Nixon – 4% (3%)
Steve Chapman – 3% (2%)
Petra Clemens – 2% (1%)
Stan Waciak – 1% (1%)
Henry Charles Hollinger – 1% (1%)
Adam Vase – 1% (1%)
Undecided – 61%

With the 2nd biggest undecided percentage among the wards, this is another ward that could go to anyone. Carra has had a lot of upward momentum recently, and it might be enough to carry him to a victory, but it’s too close to call.

Ward 10

Andre Chabot – 45% (31%)
Karl Schackwidt – 3% (1%)
Robert Kennish – 2% (1%)
Nargis Dossa – 1% (1%)
Undecided – 36%

Ald. Chabot is well on his way to an unsurprising re-election. Nargis Dossa, who was the runner-up in 2007 at 11.4% of the vote, appears to have had a huge fall from grace this time around falling to 4th and likely getting between 1-2% of the vote.

Ward 11

Brian Pincott – 22% (13%)
James Maxim – 11% (6%)
Ernest McCutcheon – 4% (3%)
Wayne Frisch – 2% (1%)
Olga Knight – 1% (0%)
Undecided – 45%

If I was in Ward 11, I would vote for Olga Knight just on the name alone. However, I’m not, and unfortunately for her, it appears to be a two-way race between Brian Pincott and James Maxim. Brian Pincott will likely be re-elected for Ward 11.

Ward 12
Al Browne – 7% (4%)
Roger Crowe – 6% (3%)
Shane Keating – 4% (2%)
Rory Rotzoll – 1% (0%)
Ben Sim – 1% (1%)
Undecided – 64%

With a whopping 64% unsure of what to do in a McIver-less Ward 12, it will come down to a 3-way race between Browne, Crowe, and Keating.

Ward 13
Diane Colley-Urquhart – 38% (25%)
Andrew Rodych – 4% (2%)
Trevor Hodge – 3% (1%)
Sandy Jenkins – 2% (0%)
Undecided – 38%

Ah, the ward of my youth. It feels like nothing has changed in the past 10 years – and it certainly won’t for another three. Andrew Rodych has done wonderfully at the debates, but unfortunately for him, it won’t be anywhere near enough to unseat DCU. Sandy Jenkins seems to have fallen from grace, going from 3rd place in the mayoral race in 2007 to last place in an Aldermanic race in 2010.

Ward 14
Linda-Fox Mellway – 20% (14%)
Richard Dur – 16% (8%)
Peter Demong – 13% (10%)
Shawn Kao – 4% (3%)
Billy Tummonds – 1% (0%)
Ken Gerelus – 0% (0%)
Undecided – 35%

Ald. Mellway ran uncontested in 2007, and now she is in a heated three-way battle with Richard Dur and Peter Demong. While she currently has the edge, this is another race that will come down to Election Day.

At this point, here are the likely changes to City Council:

Re-Elected Incumbents (Decided): 7 (Wards 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 10, 13)

Re-Elected Incumbents (Likely): 2 (Wards 7, 11)

Too Close To Call: 5 (Wards 4, 6, 9, 12, 14)

For those who have talked about how city council needs “new blood”, it surely hasn’t shown in the majority of the Aldermanic races. Four of the five “too close to call” races had no incumbent, with only Ward 14’s race having a clear shot at a new Alderman. Now, don’t take all these numbers too seriously – as I stated at the very beginning, these polls are flawed due to improper age quotas, and a margin of error of 5.8% is rather high. But at this point, it is a good opportunity to rule out a huge chunk of candidates, and I wish all those candidates the best and thank them for running and giving Calgarians more choices.

Here is the link to the original poll at VoteCalgary.

Originally posted at CalgaryPolitics.

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